Former BlackRock managing director Steven Schoenfield, now the CEO of MarketVector Indexes, predicts that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will take three to six months before approving a Bitcoin spot ETF. Schoenfield made this estimate during a panel discussion on ETFs at CCData's Digital Asset Summit in London, along with another ex-BlackRock director Martin Bednall, who is now the CEO of Jacobi Asset Management. Bednall had earlier stated that the SEC would likely approve all ETF applications at the same time to avoid giving any one company a first mover advantage.
Schoenfield had previously stated that he would have given the industry nine to twelve months before an approval, but he believes that the SEC's recent decision to delay giving verdicts on several pending ETF applications is a departure from their previous delaying tactics. Instead of completely rejecting the applications, the SEC has asked for comments, which Schoenfield sees as a marginal but significant improvement in the dialogue. He also mentioned the Grayscale lawsuit, which the SEC lost, suggesting that they will likely have to allow the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to be converted into an ETF.
BlackRock, the top asset manager in traditional finance with $9.42 trillion in assets under management (AUM), is considered the most likely contender to get a Bitcoin spot ETF approved. BlackRock has a track record of successfully navigating the SEC's approval process for ETFs, with a winning score of 575.1. This is a remarkable turn of events considering that BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, referred to Bitcoin as an "index of money laundering" back in 2017. However, in a recent appearance on FOX News, Fink acknowledged that crypto is digitizing gold in many ways.
During the panel discussion in London, Bednall expressed his belief that BlackRock's strong brand and resources would give them a first mover advantage if the SEC starts approving Bitcoin spot ETFs. Schoenfield, on the other hand, disagreed with this view. He believes that while BlackRock will certainly try to crush the competition, there are several other firms deeply committed to tradable digital assets. These firms have already submitted their applications and some are even more closely connected to the crypto ecosystem than BlackRock. Schoenfield expects BlackRock to face significant competition in this space.
Furthermore, Schoenfield's company has conducted an analysis and predicts that the approval of spot ETFs could result in a $150 to $200 billion inflow into Bitcoin investment products over three years. This would effectively double or triple the amount of AUM in current Bitcoin products.
In summary, Schoenfield believes that while BlackRock may have a strong position in the traditional financial industry, they will face fierce competition from other firms in the race to get a Bitcoin spot ETF approved. The SEC's recent delay in approving ETF applications and the Grayscale lawsuit outcome suggest a shifting landscape for crypto regulation. Schoenfield's analysis also indicates the potential for significant inflows into Bitcoin investment products if spot ETFs are approved.
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